Fresh off their upset win over the Democratic mayor of Indianapolis, Bart Peterson, Indiana Republicans are setting their sights on a bigger target: Rep. Julia Carson.
Carson, who has battled chronic health problems in recent years, was a rare Democratic incumbent in a safely blue district who had an uncomfortable race in 2006, winning by a 54%-46% margin to an underfunded challenger in a district that gave John Kerry 58% of its vote in 2004. According to Roll Call, the district’s Republicans are sensing vulnerability, and are aiming to field a viable candidate:
“Certainly after Tuesday, everything is possible,” said Cam Savage, spokesman for the re-election campaign of Gov. Mitch Daniels (R). “Republicans are feeling very good about their chances in the county. Republicans are very energized. They have the mayor’s office for the first time in eight years and all the support that goes with it.”Savage added that his camp is focused on carrying Marion County, which includes Indianapolis, in 2008.
Many Republicans look to state Rep. Jon Elrod to run for Carson’s seat if it becomes open. Elrod proved his electability in a Democratic district, even beating the state lawmaker who redrew the district maps in 2001.
“This guy beat the guy who drew the maps for the Democrats,” said Howey. “They need to take him very seriously.”
According to the Howey Political Report, Elrod will make a decision sometime this week:
State Rep. Jon Elrod told WXNT’s Abdul in the Morning that he will decide sometime this week whether he will challenge U.S. Rep. Julia Carson. “We have no idea who might be on the other side. There may be other Republican challengers. You weigh all those things and decide whether you still want to get in,” Elrod, R-Indianapolis, said. “I’ve got a lot of decisions to make. I’ve got a lot of people to talk to in the next few days. We decided we had to set a date to stop all of the speculation and either get on the horse and ride or put it back in the stable.”
Bottom line: if Carson stays on the ballot, there will be serious doubts over her ability to campaign, and an undeserved opportunity for the GOP would stay on the table.
Her health issues have kept her from serving her district in congress. Julia Carson can not effectively represent her constituents in congress with these health issues. She needs to step down after this term.
Because there is no way Carson will be held under 54% in a Presidential year in this heavily blue district(D+9). Also, Democrats would be favored to pick up Elrod’s state House seat without him running.
The likelihood of Carson’s name being on next November’s ballot is next-to-nothing. That’s really not my big worry at this point, because I find it incredibly hard to believe that her people would even consider running an entire general election campaign without making a public appearance, which at this point is what she would need to do.
That being said, it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that she would stay on the ballot through the slating, and then drop out so that her hand-picked replacement could be chosen as a replacement. This is the leading “conspiracy” theory that I consider at all credible, and is definitely believable considering the amount of influence that Carson and her political machine have within the metro area.
All signs point to Elrod getting in the race by the end of the week. His district is a 55% Democrat district that would be nearly impossible to hold on to in an election year. Safe money says that he figures a Congressional bid will result in a big enough boost in name ID that he can run for city-wide office if (when) he loses.
I still consider this a safe Dem district, but the lack of openness from Carson’s camp is definitely unsettling. At this point it is safe to say that no amount of pressure is going to sway her, though, so for better or worse we are just along for the ride until more details begin to emerge.
I’m surprised there is no talk of a primary challenge. Is she such an establishment in the Democratic party there that no one would think of challenging her?
First of all, I live on the Old Northside of Indy, and love reading Blue Indiana for a quick hometown political update every morning, and during the Fort Wayne mayor’s race, my daily dose of comic relief! Keep up the great work!!!!
I generally agree with your take on all of this, and hope you’re right that this will work itself out. One way or another, Julia is serving her last term in Congress. Unfortunately, I also think you’re right about how difficult a primary challenge would be. My quesion is, do you think eventually prominent Democrats here in Indy will start saying publicly what I’m assuming everyone has been saying privately? I think that has to happen. I don’t know A-N-Y-B-O-D-Y who wants Julia to run again — and that includes me and many others who have supported her for years and years. I’ve been a bigger Julia advocate than a lot of my Democratic friends are, and even I’m to the point of having had it.